EFFECT Heart Failure Mortality Prediction This prediction score is a method to stratify the risk of death in heart failure patients that can be applied using clinical information available at the bedside. Using the heart failure risk index, one can predict the risk of death at 30 days and one year. The component risk variables are categorized into the following: age, vital signs, laboratory tests, and comorbidities. The risk prediction method is intended to be applied to patients presenting with heart failure in a hospital-based setting, and can be used to stratify risk within hours of hospital presentation. Reference: JAMA 2003; 290(19):2581-2587. The following is a step-by-step guide to use the electronic heart failure risk predictor: - Select conventional or SI units of measurement.
- Enter age in years.
- Enter respiratory rate at hospital presentation.
- Select systolic blood pressure at hospital presentation.
- Enter blood urea nitrogen laboratory value.
- Select “Yes” if serum sodium concentration <136 mEq/L, and “No” if not.
- Select “Yes” for the following comorbidities (if present): Cerebrovascular disease, Dementia, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Hepatic cirrhosis, Cancer, and Anemia.
- Click “Calculate” to calculate the 30-day and one-year scores.
- Refer to the chart for mortality risk:
< 60 points 61-90 points 91-120 points 121-150 points > 150 points | = very low risk = low risk, = intermediate risk = high risk = very high risk | | Mortality risk at 30 days: | 30-Day Score | 30-Day Mortality Rate (%) | < 60 | 0.4 | 61-90 | 3.4 | 91-120 | 12.2 | 121-150 | 32.7 | > 150 | 59.0 | | Mortality risk at one year: | One-Year Score | One-Year Mortality Rate (%) | < 60 | 7.8 | 61-90 | 12.9 | 91-120 | 32.5 | 121-150 | 59.3 | > 150 | 78.8 | | We are interested in your comments and feedback on the prognosis system. Please send comments by e-mail to: doug.lee@ices.on.ca | | | | | |
Click here to download Pocket PC version of heart failure mortality prediction model
LEGAL DISCLAIMER
| The information on the Canadian Cardiovascular Outcomes Research Team’s website is not intended as a substitute for medical professional help or advice, but is to be used only as an aid in understanding current medical knowledge. The information contained within this site is for those people wanting to learn more about specific cardiovascular conditions. The information in this site is not intended to be medical or technical advice, but is for educational purposes only, and is not sufficient for medical decisions. A physician should always be consulted for any health problem, medical condition, or questions you may have about your medical condition. Information contained within this website should not be used as a substitute for professional medical treatment and care.
The Canadian Cardiovascular Outcomes Research Team, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, University of Toronto, and any of the funding agencies affiliated with the above assume no liability or responsibility for damage or injury to persons arising from any use of any product, information, ideal or instruction contained within this site. | LEGAL DISCLAIMER
| The information on the Canadian Cardiovascular Outcomes Research Team’s website is not intended as a substitute for medical professional help or advice, but is to be used only as an aid in understanding current medical knowledge. The information contained within this site is for those people wanting to learn more about specific cardiovascular conditions. The information in this site is not intended to be medical or technical advice, but is for educational purposes only, and is not sufficient for medical decisions. A physician should always be consulted for any health problem, medical condition, or questions you may have about your medical condition. Information contained within this website should not be used as a substitute for professional medical treatment and care.
The Canadian Cardiovascular Outcomes Research Team, Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, University of Toronto, and any of the funding agencies affiliated with the above assume no liability or responsibility for damage or injury to persons arising from any use of any product, information, ideal or instruction contained within this site. | |
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