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CCORT is funded by a Canadian Institutes of Health Research Team Grant in Cardiovascular Outcomes Research

CANHEART is funded by a CIHR Team Grant in Chronic Disease Risk & Intervention Strategies

EFFECT Heart Failure Mortality Prediction

This prediction score is a method to stratify the risk of death in heart failure patients that can be applied using clinical information available at the bedside. Using the heart failure risk index, one can predict the risk of death at 30 days and one year. The component risk variables are categorized into the following: age, vital signs, laboratory tests, and comorbidities. The risk prediction method is intended to be applied to patients presenting with heart failure in a hospital-based setting, and can be used to stratify risk within hours of hospital presentation. Reference: JAMA 2003; 290(19):2581-2587.

The following is a step-by-step guide to use the electronic heart failure risk predictor:

  1. Select conventional or SI units of measurement.
  2. Enter age in years.
  3. Enter respiratory rate at hospital presentation.
  4. Select systolic blood pressure at hospital presentation.
  5. Enter blood urea nitrogen laboratory value.
  6. Select “Yes” if serum sodium concentration <136 mEq/L, and “No” if not.
  7. Select “Yes” for the following comorbidities (if present): Cerebrovascular disease, Dementia, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Hepatic cirrhosis, Cancer, and Anemia.
  8. Click “Calculate” to calculate the 30-day and one-year scores.
  9. Refer to the chart for mortality risk:

< 60 points
61-90 points
91-120 points
121-150 points
> 150 points
= very low risk
= low risk,
= intermediate risk
= high risk
= very high risk
Mortality risk at 30 days:

30-Day Score

30-Day Mortality Rate (%)

< 60








> 150


Mortality risk at one year:

One-Year Score

One-Year Mortality Rate (%)

< 60








> 150


We are interested in your comments and feedback on the prognosis system. Please send comments by e-mail to: doug.lee@ices.on.ca

Click here to download Pocket PC version of heart failure mortality prediction model